Thursday, October 15, 2009

Prepare for Sticker Shock at Supermarket

While drinking my morning coffee and browsing the news. It was this article on Americans being prepared for sticker shock at the supermarket that caught my attention. The article like the majority of things proceeding from the mouths of the MSM is horse manure. Not that I disagree with the premise that food prices are about to skyrocket, what I disagree with are the reasons they give as to why. The thinking is illogical, and if I am nothing else I am a logical thinker. I enjoy doing logic puzzles in my spare time, when I am not reading, just so you know how this little brain operates.
So what is my problem with the reasoning of this article. First of all from the year 2000 - 2007 the worlds money supply doubled, yes doubled. We should take note this was before all the spending, bailouts and stimulus occuring after this period. This means an even larger increase in the money supply. You should notice the chart in the article showing the upward trend in food prices. You will notice at the beginning of the chart it is pretty much level, but it begins to rise upward as the money supply is increased. Now when money is printed at the astronomical rate it has been over the almost ten years, it has the effect to make your dollar worth less, this means it takes more dollars to buy something than it did before. This has to do with a very simple economic fact-the more scarce a thing the more valuable it is, the more abundant the cheaper it is. Paper money is over abundant, therefore it is cheap! Compare it to another currency today and look back a few years and you will see the loss of the dollars value.
Next the article states that the reason prices are going up is because we are recovering from a recession, while at the same time telling us that there is an"unemployment rate that's expected to linger near a three-decade high for at least another year." Now how does one know that they are in a recession or a depression? One of the major indicators is the unemployment rate. Notice the present rate is at a three decade high! Next you will notice that the reason food prices are going to rise according to the writer of this article is because "that's the reality of supply and demand in the global marketplace" and "in part, to growing demand from emerging markets like China and India and rising oil prices". Let us see if can translate this newspeak. Prices are going to soar because of the demand for food, especially in areas like China and India and because of rising oil prices. Did you get that? This makes sense with a greater demand for food we have more scarcity, which elevates the cost for food, oil is a factor in the production of food so this also makes sense. Unfortunately, what the article does not say is that prices will increase for Americans because Americans are demanding more food. In fact with unemployment at its highest rate in decades and being expected to stay there for some time Americans will buy less. This will be even more exasperated due to the devaluing of the dollar and the global demand for food commodities in places like China and India. Now the article says we are having a global food crises. I wonder why? While Americans will see the price of food soar, while they are buying less of it, Americans will continue to pay through taxation farmers not to farm (CRP). This of course artificially increases the cost of food by making food more scarce than it would naturally be if the government was not paying farmers NOT TO FARM!
So here is a brief summation of the article in plain old fashioned english. Americas economy is going down the toilet. We are in a depression but we will not experience deflation at the supermarket because China and India are doing well enough that they will demand enough of Americas food supply to make demand high while the loss of the dollars value will likewise cause the amount of dollars Americans will need to buy food to rise significantly (Inflation).

No comments:

Post a Comment